Bad Luck Brad-Blog #3, Cheryl Foland

In the book “Bad Luck Brad” by Gail Herman, the concept of “probability” is presented in a way that helps young children see the connection between a math concept and their everyday experiences. The book is presented in segments: Breakfast, School, The Candy Arcade, and The Moves, each of which depicts an experience that a young child might encounter in the course of a day that is affected by “probably” or the likelihood that an event will occur. The concept is introduced as “Luck” or the chance of having something happening, which in mathematical terminology is referred to as the “outcome”.

The first chapter, Breakfast, starts out when the main character, Brad, wakes up late on the last day of school and is having a bit of bad luck as he bumps into his siblings and trips over a toy in his hurry to get to breakfast. His mother has a bag of breakfast bars which claims to have lots of Chocolate chip and Lemon Lime bars on the box, but Brad knows he has already eaten many of the Chocolate Chip bars which changes the probability that he will get the Chocolate Chip bar he wants. This provides the first opportunity for a teacher to introduce the concept of probability or the odds that Brad will get the breakfast bar he wants. When his mother dumps the bag out on the table they discover that there are only two Chocolate Chip bars left, and there are three children in the family, all of whom are hoping for a Chocolate Chip bar. Although we never know how many Lemon-Lime bars are in the bag, this scenario allow a teachers the opportunity to demonstrate how probability works, by having students count the number of Chocolate Chips bars and Lemon-Lime Bars which is the ratio of favorable outcomes, to possible outcomes or the “sample size”, that remain in the bag. As his brother and sister reach into the bag, the chance or “odds” of Brad getting the Chocolate Chip bar he wants, changes. When it’s Brad’s turn a Chocolate Chip and a Lemon Lime bar have already been chosen by his brother and sister. Many children, may think the odds of Brad getting the remaining Chocolate Chip bar is good since there is still one left, but by actually counting the remaining bars after each sibling picks, they will see that his luck depends on number,s and the probability of Brad getting the remaining chocolate chip bar, is less than it was for his brother or sister. The book continues on with other scenarios that a child might experience that could be affected by probability .

The second chapter, School provides an opportunity to see how likely, or how probable it is, that Brad will draw a girl’s name and get a “girl present” during a grab bag gift exchange when there are more girls in his class than boys. The third chapter, Candy Arcade, presents a strategy for increasing the probability or making an outcome more likely, by choosing the option that has “a lot of what you want”, in this case a gumball machine that has more gumballs of the desired color. Brad’s friend Pete puts a quarter in gumball machine that contains all white gumballs, and gets the white gumball he wanted. Mathematically referred to as a “certain event”. Brad wants a red gumball so he puts his quarter in the only gumball machine that has red gumballs but also has 6 different colors of gumballs. Using probably, he realizes he will probably not get the red gumball he wants as he has only a 1 in 6 likelihood or chance that he will get a red gumball, provided there are the same amount of each color gumballs in the machine. He does not get the red gumball he wanted. His friends suggests that he try a machine that has a lot of what he wants. So Brad decides to try again, this time hoping for a purple gumball from a machine that has only purple and yellow gumballs, which would increase his chance to 1 in 2 or 50%. Unfortunately this strategy did not guarantee he would get the result he hoped for, it only increased the probability or likelihood he would get a purple gumball. Unfortunately Brad gets a yellow gumball.

Throughout the story Brad and his friend Pete having been looking forward to going to the movies but have disagreed about what to see. When Brad’s mom picks the boys up from the Candy Arcade, they look at the movie listings together for a show. Pete’s choice Dinosaur Days was playing in only 1 theater, and Brad’s choice Space Flight is playing in 5 theaters. When his mom suggests they need to look for a 4:00 show, Brad realizes it is more likely that the movie he wants will have a 4:00 show time as its showing in 5 theaters; increasing his chances to 5 to 1. There is a 4:00 show for the Space Flight move he wanted to see. Thus students can see how to  increase the odds or probability of an outcome. The book ends with Brad empathizing with Pete’s sad feelings for not getting to go to the movie he wanted and  Pete not getting what he wanted. which is something children can relate to.

At the end, Brad reminds his friend Pete, that it is summer vacation, and there will be other chances to see the movie he wanted. Bad Luck Brad presents luck is a function of probability, thus helping students understand the difference between “having a chance" and "having a good chance", of a desired outcome.” The four scenarios present situations, in which children can experiment and count the number of favorable outcomes, and compare it to possible outcomes. This is a good learning opportunity, for teachers can talk about words students can associate with probability, and see in the book, such as: “more likely” or a “good chance”, and introduce, mathematical concepts such as sample size (possible outcomes), events (favorable outcomes), certain events, impossible events, and probability (the ratio of favorable outcomes and possible outcomes), or likelihood of an event occurring. This book does a good job of helping children understand the concept of odds and probability.

I believe literature is a good way to learn math concepts because stories provide a way for us to relate to and retain information. A good story generally has a reason for being told and can help the audience grasp the concept more readily. In this case the author’s purpose is clear; to teach children about probability, which becomes more obvious on the last page as it also provides teachers with ideas for possible classroom activities to extend the learning experience. The author used children as characters, and experiences they might be familiar with in his scenarios, making it easier for children to understand.. This book helps children learn that even when things seem difficult and don’t seem to going their way, there is always a chance that things will get better.